The main reason for Baur’s prediction was, according to Neumann and Flohn (1987, p. The winter ended up being one of the worst in human memory. Franz Baur argued that this winter would be normal or milder than normal.

1) prediction of the weather on the German Eastern Front for the coming winter of 1941/42. Their article is partly about the German meteorologist Franz Baur’s ( Fig. Long-range weather forecast for 1941/42 and climatological studies” by Neumann and Flohn (1987).

By 1987, part 8 was reached: “Germany’s war on the Soviet Union, 1941–45. In 1975, the American Meteorological Society began publishing a series of articles called “Great Historical Events that Were Significantly Affected by Weather.” The articles went back all the way to the Mongol invasion of Japan in the twelfth century. Keywords: History Forecast verification/skill Seasonal forecasting Statistical forecasting Based on the original prognoses from wartime and Baur’s scientific and personal history, this article shows that this judgment was too harsh and unfair. Baur’s postulated prognosis for the winter of 1941/42 destroyed his reputation. Baur had a problematic relationship with his colleagues, so it is possible that the story of his prognosis is incorrect due to personal and professional contradictions. In this article, it is shown that the previous description of Baur’s prognosis for the winter of 1941/42 is incorrect. Today, Baur’s prognoses from wartime are public. The winter ended up being one of the worst. However, according to an article published 10 years after Baur’s death, Baur predicted that the winter of 1941/42 would be normal or milder than normal, primarily based on the main argument that the previous two winters had been very severe and never in climatic history had more than two severe winters occurred in a row. Baur never revealed anything about this forecast. The German professor Franz Baur prepared a long-range weather forecast for the winter of 1941/42. In October 1941, Nazi Germany’s High Command realized that the war against the Soviet Union could not be ended before winter.

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